Football
War Room: Week 15 Starts And Sits
Welcome to the War Room. Here we use intelligence and analysis to help you strategize and choose a unit to defeat your adversary.
Congratulations on making it to the semi-finals! This season has been a success thus far, hitting 50% or higher in every week this season. Overall, we have hit on 170/277 for a 61.4% hit rate on the season.
Onto the semi-finals!
Quarterback
Start
Baker Mayfield @ Arizona Cardinals
Baker Mayfield: Fantasy QB12 over the past five weeks
Baker Mayfield: 9:4 TD to INT ratio over past five weeks and two rushing TDs
Arizona Cardinals: Allowing the most fantasy points to QBs on the season
Arizona Cardinals: Have allowed over 20 fantasy points to QBs in 10 games on the season and over 30 in six games
Arizona Cardinals: Rank 29th in DVOA against the pass
Gardner Minshew @ Oakland Raiders
Gardner Minshew: 15:5 TD:INT ratio on the season
Gardner Minshew: Sixth in the league in QB rushing yards
Oakland Raiders: Allowing the second-most fantasy points to QBs on the season
Oakland Raiders: Have allowed over 25 fantasy points seven times on the season
Oakland Raiders: Rank 31st in DVOA against the pass
Ryan Fitzpatrick @ New York Giants
Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fantasy QB8 over the past three weeks
New York Giants: Have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs over the past five weeks and the seventh-most on the season
New York Giants: Have allowed six-straight games over 24 points or more
New York Giants: Rank 28th in DVOA against the pass
Sit
Aaron Rodgers vs. Chicago Bears
Aaron Rodgers: Fantasy QB15 on the season
Aaron Rodgers: Four games below 16 fantasy points in the last five; QB28 in that time
Chicago Bears: Allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs on the season
Chicago Bears: Have allowed 20 fantasy points only five times on the season and a maximum of 24.9
Chicago Bears: Rank seventh in DVOA against the pass
Weather: 18 degrees at kickoff
Kirk Cousins @ Los Angeles Chargers
Kirk Cousins: Fantasy QB20 over the past five weeks
Los Angeles Chargers: Allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points on the season and the second-fewest over the last five weeks
Los Angeles Chargers: Have only allowed one game of over 20 fantasy points since Week 4
Los Angeles Chargers: Have allowed under 200 yards passing in four of the past five games and under 220 yards in all five
Josh Allen vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Josh Allen: Has not thrown for more than 266 yards on the season
Pittsburgh Steelers: Have allowed the thrid-fewest fantasy points to QBs over the past five weeks
Pittsburgh Steelers: Have allowed fewer than 18 fantasy points in four of the past five weeks
Pittsburgh Steelers: Allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards to QBs on the season
Pittsburgh Steelers: Rank fourth in DVOA against the pass
Running Back
Start
Josh Jacobs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Josh Jacobs: Fantasy RB13 on the season
Josh Jacobs: Ranks sixth in rushing yards
Jacksonville Jaguars: Allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs on the season and the most over the past five weeks
Jacksonville Jaguars: Allowing the third-most rushing yards to RBs and the second-most rushing TDs
Jacksonville Jaguars: Rank 31st in DVOA against the run
Phillip Lindsay @ Kansas City Chiefs
Phillip Lindsay: Fantasy RB15 despite splitting snaps with Royce Freeman
Kansas City Chiefs: Allowing the most fantasy points to RBs on the season
Kansas City Chiefs: Have allowed 15 double-digit fantasy games to RBs on the season
Kansas City Chiefs: Rank 30th in DVOA against the run
Duke Johnson @ Tennessee Titans
Tennessee Titans: Have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to RBs over the past five weeks
Tennessee Titans: Allowing the second-most receptions to RBs on the season
Tennessee Titans: Rank 24th in DVOA against RBs in coverage
Sit
Joe Mixon vs. New England Patriots
Joe Mixon: Averaging 3.8 yards per carry
Joe Mixon: Fantasy RB24 on the season
Joe Mixon: Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks 30th in adjusted line yards
New England Patriots: Allowing the fewest fantasy points to RBs on the season
New England Patriots: Have only allowed eight double-digit fantasy games on the season and only one game of 20 or more fantasy points
New England Patriots: Rank sixth in DVOA against the run
Devonta Freeman @ San Francisco 49ers
Devonta Freeman: Averaging 3.6 yards per carry
Devonta Freeman: Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks 25th in adjusted line yards
San Francisco 49ers: Allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs on the season
San Francisco 49ers: Rank ninth in DVOA against the run and first in DVOA against RBs in coverage
Devin Singletary @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers: Allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to RBs on the season
Pittsburgh Steelers: Have not allowed a 100-yard rusher on the season nor more than 17.5 fantasy points to an RB
Pittsburgh Steelers: Rank fourth in DVOA against the run and third against RBs in coverage
Wide Receiver
Start
Odell Beckham Jr. @ Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals: Allowing the third-most fantasy points to WRs on the season
Arizona Cardinals: Rank 29th in DVOA against the pass, 29th, 18th, and 29th against WRs in coverage
Arizona Cardinals: Have allowed over 20 fantasy points six times on the season
Darius Slayton vs. Miami Dolphins
Darius Slayton: Fantasy WR3 over the past five weeks
Darius Slayton: Seven or more targets in each of the last four games
Darius Slayton: 81% snap share or greater in every week since Week 6
Miami Dolphins: Allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs on the season
Miami Dolphins: Have allowed 10 games of 20 points or more on the season
Miami Dolphins: Rank last in DVOA against the pass, 31st, 29th, and 17th against WRs in coverage
Tyler Lockett @ Carolina Panthers
Tyler Lockett: Fantasy WR25 despite the last four weeks
Tyler Lockett: Double-digit fantasy games in eight of first nine games
Carolina Panthers: Allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to WRs on the season
Carolina Panthers: Have allowed 11.6, 26.1, 14.6, 15.2, 25.1, 10.5, 28.3, and 18.6 fantasy points to slot WRs on the season (Tyler Lockett 62.1% of snaps from the slot)
Sit
JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Buffalo Bills
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Only five double-digit games out of 10 on the season
JuJu Smith-Schuster: Three straight single-digit fantasy games before injury
Buffalo Bills: Allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to WRs on the season
Buffalo Bills: Rank fifth in DVOA against the pass, third and fourth against WR1s and WR2s in coverage
John Brown @ Pittsburgh Steelers
John Brown: Fantasy WR62 over the past three weeks
Pittsburgh Steelers: Have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to WRs over the past five weeks
Pittsburgh Steelers: Have only allowed one 20 fantasy point game to a WR since Week 1
Pittsburgh Steelers: Rank fourth in DVOA against the pass, 14th and 11th against WR1s and WR2s in coverage
Tyrell Williams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Tyrell Williams: Fantasy WR58 on the season; WR79 over the past five weeks
Tyrell Williams: Only one double-digit fantasy game in the past six
Tyrell Williams: No TDs since Week 8
Jacksonville Jaguars: Have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points over the last five weeks
Jacksonville Jaguars: Rank sixth in DVOA in the coverage of WR1s
Tight End
Start
Jonnu Smith vs. Houston Texans
Jonnu Smith: Played in 73% or more of the Titans offensive snaps in every game since Week 7
Houston Texans: Have allowed the second-most fantasy points to TEs over the past five weeks
Houston Texans: Have allowed 17 points or more fantasy games three times since Week 7
Houston Texans: Have allowed five receiving TDs to TEs since Week 7
Houston Texans: Rank 24th in DVOA in the coverage of TEs
David Njoku @ Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals: Allowing the most fantasy points to TEs on the season
Arizona Cardinals: Have allowed a double-digit fantasy game and a TD to TEs in all but three games this season
Arizona Cardinals: Rank 32nd in DVOA in the coverage of TEs
Ian Thomas vs. Seattle Seahawks
Ian Thomas: Greg Olsen has been ruled out for Week 15
Ian Thomas: Caught 5-of-10 targets for 57 yards and a TD in Olsen’s absence in Week 14
Seattle Seahawks: Allowing the second-most fantasy points to TEs on the season and the most over the past five weeks
Seattle Seahawks: Have allowed nine double-digit fantasy games to TEs on the season
Seattle Seahawks: Have allowed over 90 receiving yards or a TD in each of the last three games
Sit
Jason Witten vs. Los Angeles Rams
Jason Witten: Has only five double-digit fantasy games out of 12 on 13 on the season
Los Angeles Rams: Allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to TEs on the season and the fewest over the past five weeks
Los Angeles Rams: Have not allowed a double-digit fantasy game over the past five weeks
Los Angeles Rams: Rank seventh in DVOA against TEs in coverage
O.J. Howard/Cameron Brate @ Detroit Lions
O.J. Howard: Fantasy TE29 on the season
Cameron Brate: Fantasy TE32 on the season
O.J. Howard/Cameron Brate: Have only seven double-digit fantasy games between them
Detroit Lions: Have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to TEs over the past five weeks
Detroit Lions: Have not allowed a double-digit fantasy game to a TE since Week 8
Kaden Smith vs. Miami Dolphins
Kaden Smith: Fantasy TE26 in points per game on the season
Kaden Smith: Caught only 2-of-5 targets for 9 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14
Miami Dolphins: Have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to TEs over the past three weeks
Miami Dolphins: Have not allowed more than 66 receiving yards to a TE since Week 1
Miami Dolphins: Have only allowed three TDs to TEs on the season
And that is the end of your briefing. Now go, defeat your adversaries. Good luck getting to the championship!
Sources
FFToday – Fantasy Points Allowed
ESPN – Defensive Yards and Points
THANK YOU FOR READING. YOU CAN READ SOME OF MY OTHER WORK AND THOUGHTS ON TWITTER @FFSTOMPY. FOLLOW FFMercs ON TWITTER @FFMERCS. PLEASE CHECK OUT EVERYTHING THAT FFMERCS HAS TO OFFER. NEW ARTICLES AND TOOLS ARE BEING ADDED CONSTANTLY. READ ABOUT WHAT CONSULTING SERVICES FFMERCS OFFERS HERE.
