Football

War Room: Week 15 Starts And Sits

Welcome to the War Room. Here we use intelligence and analysis to help you strategize and choose a unit to defeat your adversary.

Congratulations on making it to the semi-finals! This season has been a success thus far, hitting 50% or higher in every week this season. Overall, we have hit on 170/277 for a 61.4% hit rate on the season.

Onto the semi-finals!

Quarterback

Start

Baker Mayfield @ Arizona Cardinals

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Baker Mayfield: Fantasy QB12 over the past five weeks

Baker Mayfield: 9:4 TD to INT ratio over past five weeks and two rushing TDs

Arizona Cardinals: Allowing the most fantasy points to QBs on the season

Arizona Cardinals: Have allowed over 20 fantasy points to QBs in 10 games on the season and over 30 in six games

Arizona Cardinals: Rank 29th in DVOA against the pass

Gardner Minshew @ Oakland Raiders

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Gardner Minshew: 15:5 TD:INT ratio on the season

Gardner Minshew: Sixth in the league in QB rushing yards

Oakland Raiders: Allowing the second-most fantasy points to QBs on the season

Oakland Raiders: Have allowed over 25 fantasy points seven times on the season

Oakland Raiders: Rank 31st in DVOA against the pass

Ryan Fitzpatrick @ New York Giants

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Ryan Fitzpatrick: Fantasy QB8 over the past three weeks

New York Giants: Have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to QBs over the past five weeks and the seventh-most on the season

New York Giants: Have allowed six-straight games over 24 points or more

New York Giants: Rank 28th in DVOA against the pass

Sit

Aaron Rodgers vs. Chicago Bears

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Aaron Rodgers: Fantasy QB15 on the season

Aaron Rodgers: Four games below 16 fantasy points in the last five; QB28 in that time

Chicago Bears: Allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs on the season

Chicago Bears: Have allowed 20 fantasy points only five times on the season and a maximum of 24.9

Chicago Bears: Rank seventh in DVOA against the pass

Weather: 18 degrees at kickoff

Kirk Cousins @ Los Angeles Chargers

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Kirk Cousins: Fantasy QB20 over the past five weeks

Los Angeles Chargers: Allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points on the season and the second-fewest over the last five weeks

Los Angeles Chargers: Have only allowed one game of over 20 fantasy points since Week 4

Los Angeles Chargers: Have allowed under 200 yards passing in four of the past five games and under 220 yards in all five

Josh Allen vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

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Josh Allen: Has not thrown for more than 266 yards on the season

Pittsburgh Steelers: Have allowed the thrid-fewest fantasy points to QBs over the past five weeks

Pittsburgh Steelers: Have allowed fewer than 18 fantasy points in four of the past five weeks

Pittsburgh Steelers: Allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards to QBs on the season

Pittsburgh Steelers: Rank fourth in DVOA against the pass

Running Back

Start

Josh Jacobs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

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Josh Jacobs: Fantasy RB13 on the season

Josh Jacobs: Ranks sixth in rushing yards

Jacksonville Jaguars: Allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to RBs on the season and the most over the past five weeks

Jacksonville Jaguars: Allowing the third-most rushing yards to RBs and the second-most rushing TDs

Jacksonville Jaguars: Rank 31st in DVOA against the run

Phillip Lindsay @ Kansas City Chiefs

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Phillip Lindsay: Fantasy RB15 despite splitting snaps with Royce Freeman

Kansas City Chiefs: Allowing the most fantasy points to RBs on the season

Kansas City Chiefs: Have allowed 15 double-digit fantasy games to RBs on the season

Kansas City Chiefs: Rank 30th in DVOA against the run

Duke Johnson @ Tennessee Titans

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Tennessee Titans: Have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to RBs over the past five weeks

Tennessee Titans: Allowing the second-most receptions to RBs on the season

Tennessee Titans: Rank 24th in DVOA against RBs in coverage

Sit

Joe Mixon vs. New England Patriots

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Joe Mixon: Averaging 3.8 yards per carry

Joe Mixon: Fantasy RB24 on the season

Joe Mixon: Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks 30th in adjusted line yards

New England Patriots: Allowing the fewest fantasy points to RBs on the season

New England Patriots: Have only allowed eight double-digit fantasy games on the season and only one game of 20 or more fantasy points

New England Patriots: Rank sixth in DVOA against the run

Devonta Freeman @ San Francisco 49ers

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Devonta Freeman: Averaging 3.6 yards per carry

Devonta Freeman: Atlanta Falcons offensive line ranks 25th in adjusted line yards

San Francisco 49ers: Allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to RBs on the season

San Francisco 49ers: Rank ninth in DVOA against the run and first in DVOA against RBs in coverage

Devin Singletary @ Pittsburgh Steelers

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Pittsburgh Steelers: Allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to RBs on the season

Pittsburgh Steelers: Have not allowed a 100-yard rusher on the season nor more than 17.5 fantasy points to an RB

Pittsburgh Steelers: Rank fourth in DVOA against the run and third against RBs in coverage

Wide Receiver

Start

Odell Beckham Jr. @ Arizona Cardinals

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Arizona Cardinals: Allowing the third-most fantasy points to WRs on the season

Arizona Cardinals: Rank 29th in DVOA against the pass, 29th, 18th, and 29th against WRs in coverage

Arizona Cardinals:  Have allowed over 20 fantasy points six times on the season

Darius Slayton vs. Miami Dolphins

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Darius Slayton: Fantasy WR3 over the past five weeks

Darius Slayton: Seven or more targets in each of the last four games

Darius Slayton: 81% snap share or greater in every week since Week 6

Miami Dolphins: Allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to WRs on the season

Miami Dolphins: Have allowed 10 games of 20 points or more on the season

Miami Dolphins: Rank last in DVOA against the pass, 31st, 29th, and 17th against WRs in coverage

Tyler Lockett @ Carolina Panthers

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Tyler Lockett: Fantasy WR25 despite the last four weeks

Tyler Lockett: Double-digit fantasy games in eight of first nine games

Carolina Panthers: Allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to WRs on the season

Carolina Panthers: Have allowed 11.6, 26.1, 14.6, 15.2, 25.1, 10.5, 28.3, and 18.6 fantasy points to slot WRs on the season (Tyler Lockett 62.1% of snaps from the slot)

Sit

JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. Buffalo Bills

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JuJu Smith-Schuster: Only five double-digit games out of 10 on the season

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Three straight single-digit fantasy games before injury

Buffalo Bills: Allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to WRs on the season

Buffalo Bills: Rank fifth in DVOA against the pass, third and fourth against WR1s and WR2s in coverage

John Brown @ Pittsburgh Steelers

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John Brown: Fantasy WR62 over the past three weeks

Pittsburgh Steelers: Have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to WRs over the past five weeks

Pittsburgh Steelers: Have only allowed one 20 fantasy point game to a WR since Week 1

Pittsburgh Steelers: Rank fourth in DVOA against the pass, 14th and 11th against WR1s and WR2s in coverage

Tyrell Williams vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

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Tyrell Williams: Fantasy WR58 on the season; WR79 over the past five weeks

Tyrell Williams: Only one double-digit fantasy game in the past six

Tyrell Williams: No TDs since Week 8

Jacksonville Jaguars: Have allowed the ninth-fewest fantasy points over the last five weeks

Jacksonville Jaguars: Rank sixth in DVOA in the coverage of WR1s

Tight End

Start

Jonnu Smith vs. Houston Texans

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Jonnu Smith: Played in 73% or more of the Titans offensive snaps in every game since Week 7

Houston Texans: Have allowed the second-most fantasy points to TEs over the past five weeks

Houston Texans: Have allowed 17 points or more fantasy games three times since Week 7

Houston Texans: Have allowed five receiving TDs to TEs since Week 7

Houston Texans: Rank 24th in DVOA in the coverage of TEs

David Njoku @ Arizona Cardinals

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Arizona Cardinals: Allowing the most fantasy points to TEs on the season

Arizona Cardinals: Have allowed a double-digit fantasy game and a TD to TEs in all but three games this season

Arizona Cardinals: Rank 32nd in DVOA in the coverage of TEs

Ian Thomas vs. Seattle Seahawks

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Ian Thomas: Greg Olsen has been ruled out for Week 15

Ian Thomas: Caught 5-of-10 targets for 57 yards and a TD in Olsen’s absence in Week 14

Seattle Seahawks: Allowing the second-most fantasy points to TEs on the season and the most over the past five weeks

Seattle Seahawks: Have allowed nine double-digit fantasy games to TEs on the season

Seattle Seahawks: Have allowed over 90 receiving yards or a TD in each of the last three games

Sit

Jason Witten vs. Los Angeles Rams

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Jason Witten: Has only five double-digit fantasy games out of 12 on 13 on the season

Los Angeles Rams: Allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to TEs on the season and the fewest over the past five weeks

Los Angeles Rams: Have not allowed a double-digit fantasy game over the past five weeks

Los Angeles Rams: Rank seventh in DVOA against TEs in coverage

O.J. Howard/Cameron Brate @ Detroit Lions

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O.J. Howard: Fantasy TE29 on the season

Cameron Brate: Fantasy TE32 on the season

O.J. Howard/Cameron Brate: Have only seven double-digit fantasy games between them

Detroit Lions: Have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to TEs over the past five weeks

Detroit Lions: Have not allowed a double-digit fantasy game to a TE since Week 8

Kaden Smith vs. Miami Dolphins

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Kaden Smith: Fantasy TE26 in points per game on the season

Kaden Smith: Caught only 2-of-5 targets for 9 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14

Miami Dolphins:  Have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to TEs over the past three weeks

Miami Dolphins: Have not allowed more than 66 receiving yards to a TE since Week 1

Miami Dolphins: Have only allowed three TDs to TEs on the season

And that is the end of your briefing. Now go, defeat your adversaries. Good luck getting to the championship!

Sources

Football Outsiders DVOA

FFToday – Fantasy Points Allowed

Over/Unders

ESPN – Defensive Yards and Points

Football Guys – Snap Counts

Slot Snaps

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